484. You Bet Your Life: Pascal’s Wager
Should we gamble on belief in God to have a chance at infinite reward?
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Themes:
• J. Anderson and D. Collette, “Wagering with and without Pascal,” Res Philosophica 95 (2017), 95–110
• P. Bartha and L. Pasternack (eds), Pascal’s Wager (Cambridge: 2018).
• G. Brown, “A Defence of Pascal’s Wager,” Religious Studies 20 (1984), 465–79.
• A. Duff, “Pascal’s Wager and Infinite Utilities,” Analysis 46 (1986), 107–9.
• J. Elster, “Pascal and Decision Theory,” in N. Hammond (ed.), The Cambridge Companion to Pascal (Cambridge: 2003), 53-75.
• J. Golding, “Pascal’s Wager,” The Modern Schoolman 71 (1994), 115–43.
• I. Hacking, “The Logic of Pascal’s Wager,” American Philosophical Quarterly 9 (1972), 186-92.
• A. Hájek, “Objecting Vaguely to Pascal’s Wager,” Philosophical Studies 98 (2000), 1-16.
• A. Hájek, “Waging War on Pascal’s Wager,” Philosophical Review 112 (2003), 27-56.
• E. Jackson, “Faithfully Taking Pascal’s Wager,” Monist 106 (2023), 35-45.
• E. Jackson, “An Epistemic Version of Pascal’s Wager,” Journal of the American Philosophical Association 10 (2024), 427-43.
• E. Jackson and A. Rogers, “Salvaging Pascal’s Wager,” Philosophia Christi 21 (2019), 59-84.
• J. Jordan (ed.), Gambling on God: Essays on Pascal’s Wager (Lanham: 1994).
• J. Jordan, Pascal’s Wager: Pragmatic Arguments and Belief in God (New York: 2006).
• M. Martin, “Pascal’s Wager as an Argument for Not Believing in God,” Religious Studies 19 (1983), 57-64.
• G. Mougin and E. Sober, “Betting Against Pascal’s Wager,” Nous 28 (1994), 382–95.
• N. Rescher, Pascal’s Wager: A Study of Practical Reasoning in Natural Theology (Notre Dame: 1985).
• M. Rota, “Pascal’s Wager,” Philosophy Compass 12 (2017), 1-11.
• H. Sobel, “Pascalian Wagers,” Synthese 108 (1996), 11-61.
Stanford Encyclopedia: Pascal’s Wager
Comments
Pascal
Thank you: excellent reading selection. Alas, I think rather too much attention has been paid to the "wager" argument as there is much more in Pascals writings worthy of attention, even if these are "fragments," disorganized, first drafts, aphoristic, what have you. In any case, should anyone want to explore Pascal's religious and philosophical ideas in more depth, I highly recommend, in addition to several of the essays in the Cambridge volume edited by Hammond, Graeme Hunter's nonpareil examination, Pascal the Philosopher: An Introduction (University of Toronto Press, 2013).
In reply to Pascal by Patrick S. O'Donnell
Pascal
Yes I agree actually, that's why I had the general episode on him before this one on the wager. But it has attracted so much philosophical attention I thought it was worth an episode (and interview) on it in its own right. By the way the Hunter is in the bibliography of the previous episode.
In reply to Pascal by Peter Adamson
Pascal
I did not see the first episode on Pascal until after I read the one above, and of course I'm happy to see Hunter's book included. Thanks again! Incidentally, those capable of reading and understanding the SEP entry on the wager are well outside the set of readers Pascal was attempting to reach! (I have nothing against the entry itself.)
Blaise Pascal and Otto Neurath
(I am hoping the moderators can indulge me a bit here!)
What, pray tell, might Blaise Pascal and Otto Neurath have in common (apart from their firm standing as remarkable polymaths)?
I'm going out on a limb here, but it seems Pascal (who of course, among other things, was a scientist) has a critique of not only the scientism of Descartes but, at least implicitly or by extension, the more grandiose pretensions of modern science more generally. What is striking is that epistemically or theoretically, there is, it appears to me, some similarities and overlap with--of all people--Otto Neurath's understanding of the nature of science, in particular with "Neurath's Boat" as an image/metaphor/simile of scientific knowledge and practice:
"We are like sailors who have rebuild their ship on the open sea, without ever being able to dismantle it in dry dock and reconstruct it from the best components."
By way of teasing or tantalizing, consider the fact that "Neurath's 'anti-philosophy' was a 'philosophy of practice,' the Boat his guiding image of knowledge." While Pascal and Neurath are centuries apart and have, to be sure, very different lifeworlds/worldviews, they each provide us with a critique of scientism in our time (which is perhaps hard to digest or appreciate given the 'anti-science' tenor of populist politics on the Right). I hope to fill out the details on my FB page at a later date.
For what I have in mind when I use the term "scientism," please see, for starters, this compilation (which was made before AI dominated the financial markets, techno-scientific production, and scientific fantasies/phantasies in society more widely): https://www.academia.edu/.../Sullied_Natural_and_Social...
Mathematics in religion and R.E.M.
Hi Peter
Thanks for cheering us up with this episode. I feel much better now and am still laughing. I guess this (the wager argument) is what you get when you start mixing religion and mathematics. Multiplying probabilities and effects in a religious context, wow.
I started to wonder however what believing actually might be. Supposedly something more than just saying "I do".
And even that's part of a joke. The R.E.M. joke.
Actually the song starts with "I thought that I heard you laughing", YES.
I lost my belief long ago, that's part of the reason I liked the R.E.M. song that much, and YES they are singing "losing my religion", not choosing.
But I like to think you knew that.
A bit further they are however "choosing my confessions", but I am sure about the losing part.
Being raised in calvinism I remember the part that praying out of self interest was a no go, so much for Pascal.
But thanks, great episode
In reply to Mathematics in religion and R.E.M. by Erik Holkers
Mathematics in religion and R.E.M.
Ah; answers came up in the next episode
Shopping for religion
Nobody would be selecting from all available religions to decide which one to accept? Yes, there was one … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conversion_of_Vladimir_the_Great#Contents
We really tried everything while doing the religion here.
The original of https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Conversion_of_St._Vladimir is Czech (published posthumously in 1877), and I am not sure how good the translation is, but that original is really funny.
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